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12/1 Saturday Accumulator
This should be a tough trip for AFC Wimbledon, who have lost two of three away in League One so far. They've created 0.03, 0.73 and 1.18 xG and will now face the best defence in League One that has conceded 3.3 xG in 6 games. Bolton also boasts the sixth-best attack on xG created. Wimbledon will also be without Johnson, Maycock, and Hippolyte due to International duty.
Huddersfield are three wins from three at home in League One this season. They'll face a Posh side that have lost 5 of 6 and sit at the bottom of League One. Posh have the sixth-worst defence and will be without both their first-choice goalkeeper (Reyes) and one of their defenders, who has played all six games (Okagbue). They'll face a Terriers attack that ranks fifth in xG created so far this season and scored six in their three home games.
Barnet are a side whose point tally doesn't represent their performances on the pitch. They sit 9th in the xG league table but 15th on actual points. They were impressive in their away win at Swindon and followed that up with a win against strugglers Cheltenham and were unlucky not to win against Colchester (1.26-0.54 xG). Shrewsbury have lost their three away league games 4-0, 4-1, and 2-1, along with a 3-1 loss at Grimsby in the EFL Cup.
Fleetwood boast the second-best attack in League Two on xG created with 10.2 in the first six games. That has played a big part in them only suffering one defeat in all competitions this season, which came at the hands of fourth-placed Crewe. Notts County have only won games against Shrewsbury and Tranmere this season and were outplayed by Salford at home in a 2-1 loss. They rank 12th for xG created and 11th for xG conceded, so I don't see why they should be odds on.
I don't see how Rotherham should be this short of a favourite in this match. They rank dead last in xG created with just 3.3 and have allowed the third most xG against at 9.2. Exeter are pretty much middle of the pack in both categories. The Millers will be without Sam Nombe and Martin Sherif, who have scored three of their four goals this season. Kion Etete is also a doubt, so they could be light in attack. Exeter have an impressive win away at Wycombe on their CV, so they are capable on their travels and I don't think they should be this long against a very weak Rotherham side.
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